Here goes... Coronavirus.

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19 March 2015
23,755
64,856
They are trying to limit the downward slump in worldwide trading (financial, stocks and shares etc), but all they have done is make themselves look stupid.
The markets have wobbled anyway. I predicted that almost two weeks ago. You don’t need to be a genius in economics to know it would flop.
But yes they look stupid. Stupid is as stupid does.
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
Ok, so after seeing all the hype, hysteria, bullshit and profiteering (have you seen the prices of masks, 99% of which are useless, but more of that further down) going on over this across the web, I thought I'd put my thoughts down...I'm not a doctor, but I did become a CBRN Instructor in the Army, and the "B" here being the one to focus on (Biological warfare) as this virus is a biological threat.

DISCLAIMER...I'm no expert, if you need proper medical advice, follow the NHS protocols. However, this is to try and make sense of the hype on social media, and also blow some myths out of the water, some of which could potentially put you at risk (see the bit about masks). I say it again, the Army taught me how to teach soldiers to survive chemical, BIOLOGICAL, radiological, and nuclear attacks...so I'm sure some of what I learned will be useful.

Current evidence seems to show that of those who catch this virus, its the elderly, infirm, and those with current medical problems (especially, but not limited to, breathing and heart problems) that are most at risk of dying, so if you fall into one of those categories, you need to take extra care.
COVID-19 is from the family of flu illnesses, and flu kills around 291,000 to 646,000 people globally every year (sorry for the big gap in numbers, the web quotes different sources), currently COVID-19 (I'm going to shorten that to C19, its easier) has killed around 3000 in around 3 months. What is different about C19 is its virility (how quickly it affects people, and how quickly it develops into a life threatening illness) and how many people one person can infect. Why is everyone worried then? Well, its the speed with which this seems to be getting out of control, and, as mentioned before, how much more dangerous it is than "normal" flu.

Firstly, there is only one absolutely sure way to avoid getting C19...and that is to disappear into the wilderness, and have no contact with anyone else until its all over. However, thats not practical.
Some "preppers" advocate stockpiling food, medical supplies, water etc, and "bugging in"...i.e. staying at home in self-imposed isolation, minimizing contact with the outside world. A little extreme, but a little forward-planning towards a less drastic version of this might be an idea.
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
So, what to do?
Firstly, heed the NHS advice about basic hygiene, but ramp it up a little, wash hands regularly, dont touch your face, especially eyes, nose and mouth, take a bottle of hand sanitiser out with you and use it regularly...and if you can, avoid crowds, not easy if you live in a city, or work in a crowded place like an office, or factory, or if you use public transport (I would avoid this wherever possible).

Why did I mention eyes? Well, most people will think to protect the nose and mouth (stupid useless masks), but will not be aware that the eyes are a gateway into your body for germs, bacteria and virus' too.
Become more aware of those around you, and maintain a big gap between you and anyone you suspect of being ill. It's worth mentioning here that once someone shows outward signs (coughing, sneezing, feverish, looking like crap) they have probably been ill, and contagious, for some time, possibly as much as 14 days, hense the advice to avoid crowds...well, avoid other people full stop if you can lol! Avoid touching things that others will touch like handrails, door handles, lift buttons (one guy I know uses a pencil for buttons)...think about maybe using a pack of disposable gloves when you are out and about.
If someone around you is coughing and sneezing, and even if they are doing the right thing by using tissues etc, I'd still get away, as far and as quickly as possible, out of the room is ok, out of the building is better, and dont wait, do it now, ditch feeling like its impolite, or "over-sensitive"...survival means doing things differently. If its a work colleague, ask, no, demand, that they leave (maybe suggest they get tested...they shouldnt have come to work in the first place!), get their work area sanitized.

So, mow to other forms of protection.
Masks...99% of the ones you see advertised at newly inflated ridiculous prices are USELESS!!!!
Some detail here to prove this.
Surgical masks are rated to stop particles down to 5 microns size (five whole microns!)...the C19 virus particle is 0.1 (yup, thats nought point one!) microns size. Surgeons wear them to avoid THEM contaminating YOU.
Dust masks (of various types). These are rated at various protection levels, the best apparently being rated P3 or P100...USELESS! The best protect down to 0.3 micron particle size, again, C19 particle size is 0.1 microns.
However, the rating is irrelevant as they all have one drawback, (well two, but I'll cover the second further down), they dont give a perfect airtight seal around the nose and mouth, meaning you are sucking in potentially contaminated air around the edges...see, I told you, useless. Also, remember, they dont protect the eyes.

So, whats the answer?
Well, I hate to go all "Zombie apocolypse" style on you... but the only sure breathing and eyes protection is a bio-filter respirator.
If you search on the web, they cost big bucks...but there is a cheaper solution, military respirators (gasmasks is the old term for them). Search "GSR" or "S10" in that popular online buying and selling site that starts with an "E" to see the type of thing I'm on about.
A little extreme?
Probably...but if you search "book of face", some are already wearing versions of these on the Tube in London, not such a silly idea. A less extreme, but also less protective answer is to risk using a half-mask, similar to what paint-sprayers use, with replaceable filters, and a pair of sealed goggles, more like scuba ones (remember, you want to stop AIR, not just dust, getting to your eyes) than standard eye protection you might use for sanding etc. You may be able to improve the bio protection in the half-mask replaceable filters by including a layer of charcoal-based carbon filter material, but I've not researched that properly yet...make sure it is filtration material, dont do what one nugget did and use carbon paper...then wondered why he couldnt breath through the doctored filters!!!
And then throw in overshoe covers, disposable hooded overalls, disposable latex gloves (unless you are allergic), and some marigolds over the top of those, and viola... you are sorted!

And so...now we come to the bit thats going to make all of the above fall down...the bit I cant really emphasize enough.
BIO-SECURITY, or...how to avoid contaminating yourself, and others.
You can wear all the gucci gear, spend hundreds of pounds, but it can all be wasted.
YOU NEED TO PRACTICE HOW YOU CHANGE, OR TAKE THIS GEAR OFF!!!!!
As I said, paper/dust masks are useless, doubly so as people tend to wear them, and then take them off or swap them, incorrectly.
If you wear one out, you should be wearing gloves.
When you go to swap it for a fresh one, or get home and take it off, you should..
1/ Do it outside your front door, going indoors is an issue, she later points..
2/ Have a bio-safe bag to put it in (a sealable plastic bag is ok, if its not taken into the house).
3/ Do it in such a way that NO PART of the outside of the mask, or your gloves, (or any other protection) touch your face or bare hands.
4/ Take the gloves off last.... again, making sure that NO PART of the outside of the gloves touches your skin - DO NOT TAKE GLOVES OFF UNTIL everything else is removed, remove overalls and overshoes before face protection.
5/ Give your hands and face a going over with anti-bac gel, or other suitable recommended cleanser.

One thing to remember here, is that if you havent also included wearing a disposable outer layer of clothing (hooded paper overalls etc) then you are potentially carrying the virus on your clothing into your home, and currently there are no facts about how long the virus lasts on surfaces...one scientist say maybe up to 4 days, one said maybe up to 9 days...one said maybe as little as 4 hours.

So, now I hear you ask "Ok mr smartypants, what precautions are you going to take?"

As a family, we have discussed options, and made plans based on possible future issues. Better to ask "what if?" now, and have a possible plan, than wait for the crap to hit the aircon unit and be stuck with no plan or supplies.
Three members of my close family are in the "at risk" group, two of them at the higher end of the risk scale, so we are going to be hyper-vigilant, and those family members will be going into possible semi-isolation if the virus comes close to home.
We WILL be slowly stocking up on food, medical, and other supplies, (dont forget the loo roll!) but NOT PANIC BUYING!
We will be researching, and then buying, various protection items, starting with anti-bac gels, disposable gloves etc, and possibly moving on to more specialised equipment if we feel the future need is there.
Remember this, its better to buy now, whilst prices are low, than wait months and suddenly find the price has skyrocketed, just look at paper masks, they used to be pennies each, now they are going for massively inflated prices, the same will happen with everything else.
Currently, we live in a rural location, three people in the queue at our local shop is considered to be a big gathering lol, and we will be avoiding crowds in the future IF the situation requires it...but we feel that is a long time away yet.

One last word...currently there is no reason to panic, or start shopping for food and protection like its "end of days"...all I'm doing is giving you the "heads up" on certain things. More than 95% of people who get C19 survive.

A quote from an American rescue worker....
"There are 2 types of people in the world, the first evacuates the area when the authorities say a storm is coming, or has made plans and is safe, warm, fed and sheltered. The second decides to stay put, makes no plans, and thinks "It's ok, it aint gonna be that bad"...these are the ones who die, or get rescued off the roofs of their houses in the flood, or wander round hungry and thirsty when their house gets blown away...and moan because people aren't there, putting their lives at risk, to give them food and water".

I'm the first guy...which one are you?
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
School down from where we are has just sent home and asked the children and staff to quarantine themselves as they have just returned from a trip to Italy. I think if we are all sensible about it, and take the advice given then things will settle down. I understand that the media have to report these things but it creates panic the way they report it.
Common sense - if you think you’ve been infected keep away/quarantine yourself as best you can and contact the relevant health authorities . S x


"Common sense".... I'm currently wearing a t-shirt that says...

Common sense is so rare these days it should be classed as a superpower.:rofl:
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
looking it the WHO figures the mortality rate is about 3.4% if the infected worldwide, take into account a lot, A LOT of those are from areas with little or no healthcare and sanitation, I think calm heads and sensible precautions are the best steps to take, but if you want to lock yourselves away for the next however long feel free. The mid week shop will be easier with less people in Waitrose :)
So thats a worldwide death toll of around 30 million, given that 3.4% mortality rate, and that out of a population of around 6 billion around 1 in 7 will catch it. I'd say sensible thinking about this would make anyone a little worried?
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
So thats a worldwide death toll of around 30 million, given that 3.4% mortality rate, and that out of a population of around 6 billion around 1 in 7 will catch it. I'd say sensible thinking about this would make anyone a little worried?
And remember, current data shows an average of about half a million people die from "normal flu" worldwide every year?
:(
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
Life is a risk but being sensible and trying to minimise the risk is about all anyone can do. As others said above you could catch this on a bus, in a shop or in a club. Perhaps a club environment is a little riskier if only because you have more people in a confined environment. It's a personal choice, do you risk or try to play safe. Personally I'm not that concerned, even if you catch corona virus the death rate is only about 1-2%, a lower risk than death from flu. Obviously no-one wants anyone to die but with some sensible precautions then the risk is lower.
Current model suggests a death rate for C19 at over 3%.
Also take into account it not just you thats at risk....do you have family, or friends, who are in the "higher risk" category?
You could be a carrier, and infect them.
 
10 March 2015
944
2,314
Not sure it would be usefull in a pub unless you can somehow wear the mask and drink through a straw.
Most military respirators (or gasmask to give them their old name) since the cold war have a drinking tube fitted....and yes, someone has tried drinking lager through one...wonder who that could be?:whistle:
 
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Therapon

Admin
11 August 2015
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Current model suggests a death rate for C19 at over 3%.
Also take into account it not just you thats at risk....do you have family, or friends, who are in the "higher risk" category?
You could be a carrier, and infect them.

As I said in my first sentence, it's about being sensible and trying to minimise the risk.
 
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11 November 2019
5,418
5,883
So, what to do?
Firstly, heed the NHS advice about basic hygiene, but ramp it up a little, wash hands regularly, dont touch your face, especially eyes, nose and mouth, take a bottle of hand sanitiser out with you and use it regularly...and if you can, avoid crowds, not easy if you live in a city, or work in a crowded place like an office, or factory, or if you use public transport (I would avoid this wherever possible).

Why did I mention eyes? Well, most people will think to protect the nose and mouth (stupid useless masks), but will not be aware that the eyes are a gateway into your body for germs, bacteria and virus' too.
Become more aware of those around you, and maintain a big gap between you and anyone you suspect of being ill. It's worth mentioning here that once someone shows outward signs (coughing, sneezing, feverish, looking like crap) they have probably been ill, and contagious, for some time, possibly as much as 14 days, hense the advice to avoid crowds...well, avoid other people full stop if you can lol! Avoid touching things that others will touch like handrails, door handles, lift buttons (one guy I know uses a pencil for buttons)...think about maybe using a pack of disposable gloves when you are out and about.
If someone around you is coughing and sneezing, and even if they are doing the right thing by using tissues etc, I'd still get away, as far and as quickly as possible, out of the room is ok, out of the building is better, and dont wait, do it now, ditch feeling like its impolite, or "over-sensitive"...survival means doing things differently. If its a work colleague, ask, no, demand, that they leave (maybe suggest they get tested...they shouldnt have come to work in the first place!), get their work area sanitized.

So, mow to other forms of protection.
Masks...99% of the ones you see advertised at newly inflated ridiculous prices are USELESS!!!!
Some detail here to prove this.
Surgical masks are rated to stop particles down to 5 microns size (five whole microns!)...the C19 virus particle is 0.1 (yup, thats nought point one!) microns size. Surgeons wear them to avoid THEM contaminating YOU.
Dust masks (of various types). These are rated at various protection levels, the best apparently being rated P3 or P100...USELESS! The best protect down to 0.3 micron particle size, again, C19 particle size is 0.1 microns.
However, the rating is irrelevant as they all have one drawback, (well two, but I'll cover the second further down), they dont give a perfect airtight seal around the nose and mouth, meaning you are sucking in potentially contaminated air around the edges...see, I told you, useless. Also, remember, they dont protect the eyes.

So, whats the answer?
Well, I hate to go all "Zombie apocolypse" style on you... but the only sure breathing and eyes protection is a bio-filter respirator.
If you search on the web, they cost big bucks...but there is a cheaper solution, military respirators (gasmasks is the old term for them). Search "GSR" or "S10" in that popular online buying and selling site that starts with an "E" to see the type of thing I'm on about.
A little extreme?
Probably...but if you search "book of face", some are already wearing versions of these on the Tube in London, not such a silly idea. A less extreme, but also less protective answer is to risk using a half-mask, similar to what paint-sprayers use, with replaceable filters, and a pair of sealed goggles, more like scuba ones (remember, you want to stop AIR, not just dust, getting to your eyes) than standard eye protection you might use for sanding etc. You may be able to improve the bio protection in the half-mask replaceable filters by including a layer of charcoal-based carbon filter material, but I've not researched that properly yet...make sure it is filtration material, dont do what one nugget did and use carbon paper...then wondered why he couldnt breath through the doctored filters!!!
And then throw in overshoe covers, disposable hooded overalls, disposable latex gloves (unless you are allergic), and some marigolds over the top of those, and viola... you are sorted!

And so...now we come to the bit thats going to make all of the above fall down...the bit I cant really emphasize enough.
BIO-SECURITY, or...how to avoid contaminating yourself, and others.
You can wear all the gucci gear, spend hundreds of pounds, but it can all be wasted.
YOU NEED TO PRACTICE HOW YOU CHANGE, OR TAKE THIS GEAR OFF!!!!!
As I said, paper/dust masks are useless, doubly so as people tend to wear them, and then take them off or swap them, incorrectly.
If you wear one out, you should be wearing gloves.
When you go to swap it for a fresh one, or get home and take it off, you should..
1/ Do it outside your front door, going indoors is an issue, she later points..
2/ Have a bio-safe bag to put it in (a sealable plastic bag is ok, if its not taken into the house).
3/ Do it in such a way that NO PART of the outside of the mask, or your gloves, (or any other protection) touch your face or bare hands.
4/ Take the gloves off last.... again, making sure that NO PART of the outside of the gloves touches your skin - DO NOT TAKE GLOVES OFF UNTIL everything else is removed, remove overalls and overshoes before face protection.
5/ Give your hands and face a going over with anti-bac gel, or other suitable recommended cleanser.

One thing to remember here, is that if you havent also included wearing a disposable outer layer of clothing (hooded paper overalls etc) then you are potentially carrying the virus on your clothing into your home, and currently there are no facts about how long the virus lasts on surfaces...one scientist say maybe up to 4 days, one said maybe up to 9 days...one said maybe as little as 4 hours.

So, now I hear you ask "Ok mr smartypants, what precautions are you going to take?"

As a family, we have discussed options, and made plans based on possible future issues. Better to ask "what if?" now, and have a possible plan, than wait for the crap to hit the aircon unit and be stuck with no plan or supplies.
Three members of my close family are in the "at risk" group, two of them at the higher end of the risk scale, so we are going to be hyper-vigilant, and those family members will be going into possible semi-isolation if the virus comes close to home.
We WILL be slowly stocking up on food, medical, and other supplies, (dont forget the loo roll!) but NOT PANIC BUYING!
We will be researching, and then buying, various protection items, starting with anti-bac gels, disposable gloves etc, and possibly moving on to more specialised equipment if we feel the future need is there.
Remember this, its better to buy now, whilst prices are low, than wait months and suddenly find the price has skyrocketed, just look at paper masks, they used to be pennies each, now they are going for massively inflated prices, the same will happen with everything else.
Currently, we live in a rural location, three people in the queue at our local shop is considered to be a big gathering lol, and we will be avoiding crowds in the future IF the situation requires it...but we feel that is a long time away yet.

One last word...currently there is no reason to panic, or start shopping for food and protection like its "end of days"...all I'm doing is giving you the "heads up" on certain things. More than 95% of people who get C19 survive.

A quote from an American rescue worker....
"There are 2 types of people in the world, the first evacuates the area when the authorities say a storm is coming, or has made plans and is safe, warm, fed and sheltered. The second decides to stay put, makes no plans, and thinks "It's ok, it aint gonna be that bad"...these are the ones who die, or get rescued off the roofs of their houses in the flood, or wander round hungry and thirsty when their house gets blown away...and moan because people aren't there, putting their lives at risk, to give them food and water".

I'm the first guy...which one are you?
Spot on with the “Hygiene “?
 
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10 March 2015
944
2,314
So thats a worldwide death toll of around 30 million, given that 3.4% mortality rate, and that out of a population of around 6 billion around 1 in 7 will catch it. I'd say sensible thinking about this would make anyone a little worried?
Updated figures..world population is 7.7 billion.
"Normal flu" affects an average of around 15% of the global population.
C19 maybe more virulent than normal flu.
Possible global yearly figure for C19 fatalities could be as high as 40 million.
 
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